Majors tip a cash rate hike next Tuesday
Macquarie Bank has raised fixed home loan rates for the second time this month, just days ahead of the Reserve Bank's (RBA) cash rate decision on 29 September. Canstar data shows it is one of 18 lenders to lift at least one fixed term this month.
Its 24 September increases of up to 0.20 percentage points follow a round of up to 0.30 percentage points on 8 September. Aussie and ubank also lifted fixed rates, by up to 0.25 and 0.30 percentage points respectively, in Aussie's second rise this month.
Sally Tindall, data insights director at Australian comparison site Canstar, said the data showed "banks big and small are preparing for the increasing possibility rates will rise".
What a hike means for repayments
On a $1 million owner-occupier loan with 25 years remaining when the 2026 hikes began, September and November increases would leave monthly repayments $759 higher across five rate rises, Canstar modelling shows. For a $600,000 loan, the September move alone would add $91 a month, and the five hikes combined $456.
Tindall said most households could absorb another rise, but those living from payday to payday could be pushed into the red.
Cash rate call looms
All four major banks expect a 0.25 percentage point lift to 4.60% at the RBA's September board meeting, according to Canstar's summary of big four forecasts. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) also builds a November rise into its official forecast, taking the cash rate to 4.85% by year's end, while the other majors flag it as a risk.
National Australia Bank (NAB) had already been tipping a September move, and the other three majors brought their forecasts forward after senior RBA officials signalled growing concern about inflation, with Governor Michele Bullock telling a parliamentary committee that "some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising".
Where fixed pricing now sits
Macquarie's one-year rate of 6.49%, up 0.10 percentage points, matches the cheapest fixed offers from NAB and ANZ. Its lowest two- and three-year rates rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.59%, and its four- and five-year rates to 6.64%.
CBA’s latest round of fixed rate increases landed on 22 September, after NAB and ANZ's fixed rate increases last week and a similar Westpac move. Canstar said those rises reached up to 0.48 percentage points.
Tindall said owner-occupiers could still find rates below 6%, but those would likely become scarce if the RBA moves on 29 September.
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