NSW and Victoria drive first fall in housing values since 2022
New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show the total value of Australia's residential dwellings has fallen for the first time in nearly four years.
First fall since 2022
The ABS reported that the value of Australia's dwelling stock dropped $34.1 billion, or 0.3%, to $12.7 trillion in the June quarter.
Mish Tan (pictured), the ABS's head of finance statistics, said "the value of dwelling stock fell for the first time since the September quarter 2022," marking an end to nearly four years of consecutive quarterly gains.
The decline was driven by falling prices rather than a shrinking number of dwellings, with Tan noting "the quarterly fall was driven by lower property prices, with the mean dwelling price falling by 0.7% to $1.1 million." She added that the result "is consistent with recent softening in housing market conditions" — echoing sentiment already flagged by lenders and economists in recent weeks.
NSW and Victoria lead declines
The fall wasn't felt evenly across the country. New South Wales recorded the steepest drop, with mean dwelling prices down 2.4%, or $32,700, followed by Victoria at -2.1% (-$19,600) and the ACT at -1.3% (-$13,300). Every other state and territory recorded a rise in mean dwelling prices over the quarter, underscoring how concentrated the softening has been in the two largest markets.
Despite the quarterly pullback, the ABS noted the value of Australia's dwelling stock remains 8.5% higher than the same time last year, a reminder that the broader trend over the past 12 months has still been one of growth.
The trend has widened since then — Cotality's Home Value Index shows 93% of capital city suburbs recorded falling values through winter, more than double the share seen in autumn, with every capital except Darwin now in decline.
The ABS figures may only be the start of a longer adjustment — CommBank economists now forecast a national peak-to-trough fall of around 9%, with Sydney and Melbourne still expected to see the steepest declines of any capital going forward.
Broker takeaways
For brokers, the data confirms values in Sydney and Melbourne are cooling faster than elsewhere, with flow-on effects for LVRs, equity positions, and refinancing decisions. That caution is already visible elsewhere — Westpac-Melbourne Institute data shows just under a third of consumers now expect prices to fall further, with homebuyer confidence pulling back sharply in September, a sign client hesitancy is likely to persist as conditions weaken further afield.
