Investor pullback and viability pressures threaten to worsen housing delivery
Access Wealth managing director and founder Dory Senior (pictured) is warning that Australia's new-housing pipeline faces fresh pressure, with the gap between approvals and actual delivery widening despite improving headline figures — even as shifting investor behaviour and tightening project viability thresholds add further strain.
The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council reports that quarterly building approvals are now 26% higher and commencements 15% higher than immediately before the Housing Accord period began. Yet only around 308,000 homes have been completed across the Accord's first seven quarters of its five-year term, with a record 244,000 dwellings under construction in the March quarter still falling short of demand.
Senior said the disconnect between rising approvals and actual delivery is not yet well understood beyond the property sector. In blunt terms, "an approval isn't a completed home", he said.
Investor capital may not stay in residential property
Senior said recent policy settings have created diverging incentives between residential and commercial property. As a result, some investors are reconsidering where they allocate capital.
That change is already showing up in the numbers: ABS data for the June quarter shows investor lending posted its steepest quarterly fall in almost four years, a pullback the ABS linked to the RBA's third 2026 rate rise and looming negative gearing and CGT changes.
Property Investment Professionals of Australia chair Cate Bakos has linked the retreat directly to reduced borrowing capacity rather than weaker sentiment.
Senior's concern is broader still: "Some of that capital may leave residential property altogether," he said.
Senior pointed to Melbourne as an example of why localised context matters more than headline sentiment. Greater Melbourne added roughly 105,000 residents last year, the largest population gain of any Australian capital, while outer-growth corridors such as Mickleham-Yuroke grew by around 12% in just 12 months.
Senior cited a client's Mickleham townhouse purchase, where bank valuations rose to between $739,000 and $752,000 within a year, an uplift of more than $150,000.
Fundamentals, not sentiment, should guide decisions
Senior said the shift toward smaller lots, townhouses, and higher-density housing reflects affordability and demographic pressures likely to persist for decades, and that investors who adjust their expectations accordingly will be better positioned than those relying on outdated assumptions.
Drawing a parallel with COVID-era predictions that proved overly pessimistic, he said the core issue remains unchanged.
"Our population continues to grow and we're still not completing enough homes," he said.
For brokers advising property-investor clients, the message is that construction-finance and pre-sales risk deserves closer attention than approval data alone suggests.
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