What do the latest property transaction figures mean?

Transactions down year-on-year but up monthly

What do the latest property transaction figures mean?

Property transactions in both residential and non-residential sectors declined on a year-over-year basis but rose month-on-month, latest data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has shown.

The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate total for residential transactions in March 2024 reached 84,200, marking a 6% decrease compared to March 2023, but a slight 1% increase from February 2024. Meanwhile, the non-seasonally adjusted figures showed residential transactions stood at 86,980, down 9% from the previous year, yet up 20% from the preceding month.

In the non-residential sector, the seasonally adjusted transactions were estimated at 9,950 for the month, experiencing a 9% year-over-year drop but rising 1% month-over-month. The non-seasonally adjusted data indicated 11,270 transactions, which is 15% lower than March 2023, though it saw a significant 29% increase from February 2024.

“Today’s figures show that the property market is on an even keel with a steady base of completions in the first quarter and a healthy pipeline of buyers coming through,” Nick Leeming (pictured left), chairman of property specialist Jackson-Stops, commented on the HMRC report.

“Across our own national network in March, we saw a positive uptick in new instructions, supporting the view that that market is paving the way for a more active summer. This is reflected in mortgage approvals being significantly up from last year, starting to make a long-awaited return to pre-pandemic levels.

“Buoyed by falling inflation, the possibility that interest rates will soon be cut would be another strong vote of confidence to help grease the wheels of the market and ease the downward pressure on house prices.”

Also commenting on the latest property transaction figures, Clare Beardmore (pictured centre), director of distribution and mortgage club at Legal & General Mortgage Services, said the mortgage market has definitely moved up a gear in 2024.

“Gross lending and product transfer activity are holding strong, and it’s also been fantastic to see first-time buyers leading the charge, with lending to this group doubling year-on-year in February compared to the same month last year,” Beardmore commented.

Ben Waugh (pictured right), managing director at later life lender more2life, pointed out:  “Property transactions have been steadily climbing throughout the first quarter of the year but remain below the levels seen during the same period in 2023.

“Inflation falling to its lowest rate in two years and the expected drop in base rate later this year should help to restore consumer confidence after the extended period of economic volatility the market has endured.

“Alongside these more favourable economic factors, the rise in property transactions, albeit small, can also be attributed to the growing number of homeowners who are being forced into downsizing their property in order to navigate higher mortgage payments.

“However, downsizing is not the only solution to addressing affordability challenges imposed by the increased cost of living, with lifetime mortgages and the new generation of partial-interest-payment lifetime mortgages providing realistic alternatives for clients to consider. It is important that borrowers seek out a professional adviser to understand what options are available to secure a more stable financial future.”

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