You can’t predict the future

by MPA29 Mar 2016
Why didn't anyone predict that rates would fall in January? All the predictions had me geared up for purchase business and I was taken by surprise and missed many opportunities. Why can't we get better data?

-- Written by several loan officers.

There is no way anyone can predict the future of interest rates, the stock market or any financial instrument which is subject to free market trading conditions. They pay economists hundreds of thousands each year to make predictions and they are often wrong. The best example is the Freddie Mac Annual Forecast. I can't tell you how many times they have predicted rates will go up next year and they have not. Thus, point number one is: don't believe in predictions.

Secondly, since you can't predict the future, you must have a business model which is prepared for any scenario. This is one reason that I teach the importance of database marketing, which includes the largest compilation of your entire sphere possible. Having a database which is "locked and loaded" gives you the ability to react instantaneously. For example, our system had a rate alert email available in January and those who had their databases ready could get the word out to thousands in a matter of minutes. How do you get a database of thousands? Not by purchasing a list. More on that next week.

--Dave Hershman

Dave Hershman has been the leading author and a top speaker for the industry for decades with six books authored and hundreds of articles published. His website is If you have a reaction to this commentary or another question you would like answered in this column? Email Dave directly at


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