Morning Briefing: Home prices unlikely to see widespread decline says mortgage insurer

by Steve Randall06 Jan 2016
Home prices unlikely to see widespread decline says mortgage insurer
Home prices across America are unlikely to decline according to analysis from mortgage insurer Arch Mortgage Insurance Company. Its Winter 2016 Housing and Mortgage Market Review shows a 6 per cent risk of decline nationally although notes that “energy patch” states are at a significantly higher risk.

“Nationwide, the housing market is likely to strengthen over the coming year in spite of economic headwinds from a strong dollar and expected gradual rate increases by the Federal Reserve,” said Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, Senior Director of Risk Analytics and Pricing at Arch MI. ”Despite this forecast, ’Energy Patch’ states such as North Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia and Alaska are at greatest risk of experiencing declining prices as their economies continue to slow due to continued fallout from the large drop in coal, oil and natural gas prices seen over the last year. In addition, Texas has the riskiest MSA’s due to oil price declines.”

Outside these areas there should be price increases above inflation, the report concludes, with job creation, wage rises and low inventory all playing their part.
CoreLogic forecasts 5.4 per cent growth in home prices in 2016
Home prices will increase by 5.4 per cent in the year to November 2016 according to a forecast from CoreLogic. The figure for the year to November 2015 was 6.3 per cent, including distressed properties.

“Many factors, including strong demand and tight supply in many markets, are contributing to the long-sustained boom in prices and home equity which is a very good thing for those owning homes,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “On the flip side, prices have outstripped incomes for several years in a number of regions so, as we enter 2016, affordability is becoming more of a constraint on sales in some markets.”

The company’s data shows that prices slowed at the end of 2015 with month-over-month rises of 0.5 per cent in November and no real change in December.
This market’s booming as California becomes less affordable
As California’s home prices have continued to rise homeowners have been lured to the more affordable Oregon market. However, the demand is pushing up rents and home prices, especially in Portland. CNBC reports that Oregon topped the list of destination markets in 2015 and realtors report that millennials are key buyers in the state. Prices in Oregon were up 9 per cent in the year to November 2015 according to the latest data from CoreLogic.


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