Ten-X projects that existing-home sales in November will increase by 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate between 5.32 million and 5.51 million, with a targeted number of 5.5 million, from the October sales figure reported by the National Association of Realtors.
"Both October and November existing-home sales figures have probably been distorted a bit by the hurricanes that impacted real estate transactions in Florida and Texas," Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said. "At least part of the reason November sales appear to be higher is that sales activity has improved significantly across the South, which represents about 40% of home sales, after a temporary dip due to the storms. But it seems unlikely that home sales will carry this momentum into the new year unless inventory levels improve dramatically."
Ten-X further projects that the median price for sales of existing homes will gain 0.1% from October and 5.1% from November 2016 to between $234,440 and $259,118, with a target price point of $246,779.
"While the combination of a firm labor market and low mortgage rates has certainly strengthened homebuying demand, the housing market continues to face a number of challenges, most notably inventory constraints that are exacerbated by rising homeowner tenure, fewer foreclosures and elevated construction costs," Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio said. "Moving into 2018, the looming potential for higher mortgage rates and tax reform, which may include a revision of the mortgage interest deduction and the elimination of private activity bonds, could present further obstacles."
Existing homes sales appear to have eased this month
Existing home sales not rebounding says Ten-X
Sales of existing homes will post a slight increase in November, signaling further recovery from a slight dip due to recent storms, according to the Residential Real Estate Nowcast released by Ten-X.