Sun Belt cities lead growth in national home price index

by Steve Randall27 Nov 2019

Home prices nationally continue to post modest gains compared to 2018.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index which covers all 9 US Census divisions posted a 3.2% year-over-year increase in September, according to data released this week.

That is a slight increase from the 3.1% annual rise posted in August.

The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, no change from the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, up from 2.0% in the previous month and led by a 6% rise in Phoenix, 4.6% in Charlotte, and 4.5% in Tampa.

"September’s report for the US housing market is reassuring,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “After a long period of decelerating price increases, it’s notable that in September both the national and 20-city composite indices rose at a higher rate than in August, while the 10-city index’s September rise matched its August performance.”

However, Lazzara said it was too soon to say if this marks an end to deceleration or just a pause.

Impact for the market
When asked what today’s release means for the housing market, Dr. Ralph B. McLaughlin, deputy chief economist and executive of research and insights for CoreLogic said that “while stubbornly low mortgage rates have put the kabash on the great housing market cooldown, the boom and bust patterns of home price growth in West appear to be now solidly on the bust side.

He added that San Francisco and Las Vegas – once emblems of the housing market gold rush – have turned into ghost towns, relatively speaking, over the past year.

“While not great news from new homeowners, first-time buyers looking to get their foot in the door of homeownership might have something new to be thankful for this holiday season,” added McLaughlin.

Monthly stats
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in September. The 10-City Composite did not post any gains and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% increase for the month.

After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-overmonth increase in September. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.4% increase. In September, 12 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

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