Association updates housing forecast

What brokers need to know about the future of various housing markets

Association updates housing forecast
What brokers need to know about the future of various housing markets.

“Nationally, sales activity is forecast to decline by 1.5% to 527,400 units in 2017,” CREA said in its latest Resale Market Forecast. “This is little changed compared to CREA’s previous forecast at the national level, with an upward revision to the sales forecast for British Columbia offsetting a downward revision to Ontario’s.”

Housing trends will differ among four regions, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association: British Columbia, the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, oil-dependent provinces and every other market.

British Columbia

The province, which has lately been defined by Vancouver’s slowdown following the implementation of last year’s 15% foreign buyer tax, is showing signs of recovering from that correction.

According to CREA, this is evidence buyer sentiment is improving.

However, sales are still expected to decline 9% year-over-year this year.


“In Ontario, evidence suggests that housing market sentiment has similarly cooled following housing policy changes made by the provincial government in April 2017,” CREA said. “Trends for the province are softening, with home sales and price growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region slowing.”

Oil country

Sales are still down and supply is up in oil-dependent provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland.

“This has resulted in somewhat softer price trends in the two western provinces and more pronounced price declines in Newfoundland and Labrador,” CREA said. “Even so, activity in Alberta has firmed up compared to the low reached in early 2016 and the balance between supply and demand in the province has been tightening. By comparison, the balance between supply and demand in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland is increasingly favouring buyers.”

Alberta is expected to see a rebound with sales forecasted to jump 10.2% year-over-year. However, they will remain below the 10-year average.

‘Breakout’ year for other provinces

“To varying degrees, housing markets in Manitoba, Northern and Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island had a breakout year in 2016, with rising sales drawing down previously elevated levels of supply,” CREA said. “So far this year, more balanced market conditions have remained in all of these regions.”

Manitoba (+0.3%) and Nova Scotia (-0.4%) are expected to see steady performance this year compared to last.

Increases are projected in Quebec (+3.6%) and New Brunswick (+1.9%) year-over-year.