Rate snapshot: Interest rates open higher, employment numbers due this week

by MPA02 Sep 2014


Interest rates opened higher this morning;
the 10 yr at 2.40% is presently testing its 20 day moving average on the increase in rate (Friday’s close 2.35%). MBS prices -20 bps frm Friday’s close (Friday MBS price closed +3 bp and 8 bps better than at 9:30 Friday morning. US stock indexes opened at 9:30 about unchanged (see below for 10:00 levels).
Two economic reports at 10:00; August ISM manufacturing index and July construction spending. The ISM index was expected at 56.8 frm 57.1; as reported it jumped to 59.0; new orders index 66.7 frm 63.4, employment index did slip to 58.2 frm 58.2. July construction spend very strong; +1.8% against estimates of +0.9%; June spending revised to -0.9% frm -1.8%.
Now that Labor Day has come and gone markets are expected to be back to full compliments of traders and investors. Some chatter this morning about Sept being a tough month for the equity markets, we usually ignore those kinds of comments; ‘sell in May and go away’ is another of those mantras that deserves to be ignored. Treasuries posted the biggest rally in seven months in August amid geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East, and speculation that the European Central Bank will expand monetary stimulus to revive inflation. Mario Draghi said at Jackson Hole, that the central bank will use “all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability.” Officials are “ready to adjust our policy stance further,” he said. The central bank will add more QE to attempt to stop the spiraling down of deflation that is increasing throughout the region. The result has driven EU interest rates down to levels unprecedented 0.87% in Germany and 1.22% in France last week. The US bond and mortgage markets benefiting as our rates are much higher than any G-7 country.
Russia's foreign minister called on the U.S. to push Kiev into giving up its military campaign against pro-Russia rebels and negotiate a political compromise, as an influx of support for the rebels from Russia began reversing Ukrainian gains. Nothing changed in the mid-east over the long weekend; the Islamic State continuing its push into Syria and northern Iraq. Although those issues remain hot spots for markets, this morning not so much with most focus this week on US economic data and news unfolding out of the EU. The European Union is the front seat driver for US interest rates, any increase in rates in Germany or France, or other G-7 countries will drive US rates up.
This is employment week; August employment data hits on Friday; the unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.1% with non-farm jobs increasing in line with the last few months, +230K. Later this week there is a NATO meeting scheduled, the agenda is to re-affirm NATO’s allegiance to Estonia and Lithuania as Russia looms as a growing Bear.
This Week’s Calendar:
Tuesday,
10:00 am August ISM manufacturing index (56.8 frm 57.1 in July)
July construction spending (+0.9%)
Wednesday,
7:00 am MBA mortgage applications
10:00 am July Factory Orders (+10.9%)
No Time August auto and truck sales
2:00 pm Feb Beige Book
Thursday,
8:15 am August ADP private jobs (+223K)
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+2K to 300K)
July trade balance (-$42.3B)
Q2 productivity revision (+2.4% frm +2.5%)
Q2 unit labor cost revision (+0.5% frm +0.6%)
10:00 am August ISM services sector index (57.5 frm 58.7 in July)
Friday,
8:30 am August employment data (6.1% unch, non-farm jobs +230K, private jobs +220K, hourly earnings +0.2%)
WE ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT FLOATING, BUT IF YOU DO, WE WILL LET YOU KNOW IF PRICES DETERIORATE FURTHER. LIKELY THE LOWS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. THE 10 AT SUPPORT AT 2.40%.
PRICES @ 10:15 AM
10 yr note:-19/32 (59 bp) 2.41% +6 bp
5 yr note: -8/32 (25 bp) 1.68% +5 bp
2 Yr note: -2/32 (6 bp) 0.52% +2 bp
30 yr bond: -49/32 (153 bp) 3.16% +6 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.156%; 3 mo 0.233%; 6 mo 0.329%; 1 yr 0.564%
30 yr FNMA 3.5 Sept: @9:30
15 yr FNMA 3.0: Sept @9:30
30 yr GNMA 3.5 Sept: @9:30
Dollar/Yen: 104.96+0.61 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.3123 -$0.0005
Gold: $1268.20 -$19.20
Crude Oil: $94.73 -$1.23
DJIA: 17,077.77 -20.68
NASDAQ: 4594.30 +14.03
S&P 500: 2003.84 +0.47

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