Out of the Woods Yet?

by 21 Apr 2010

Today?s newspapers are claiming that foreclosures are down from last month and nearly 40% from this time in 2009. No kidding. What they don?t say is how much short sale inventory has gone up! As an appraiser, I have been getting more and more assignments for short sale properties. From single family homes to unit properties. I am also seeing a rise in short sales in homes priced $600,000 and higher in Southern California. Commercial properties are really getting hit as businesses that use to lease their spaces are leaving. And finally, large community projects that were once on the books to be built are now on hold. Personally, I am optimistic, and do see that things are on the mend, but there are a few basic truths that we all need to face. Real economic recovery will be evident when: Unemployment has to come down to 6% and sustain this level for 3 consecutive quarters Businesses (across the board) sustain a growth of 3% for 3 consecutive quarters. The general public has either eliminated or paid down their debt and have been able to save 10% of their income for a 12 month period. And the banks have been able to eliminate 70% of their bad loan inventory and their new inventory has a small percentage of default. Even if things were to turn around within the next 12 months, most of the general public will be very careful in how they spend, and most of us have to get use to living on a more modest income, or well within our means. We are not out of the woods yet. Sincerely, Lamarr C. Banks


  • by Greenback | 5/7/2010 1:54:00 PM

    I completely disagree with you. You forgot to mention how short sales have been investigated. You make it look pretty - that's cool; but that short term BS;- yes, with fraud involved, along with no real Independent Real Estate Appraisal fix means that unemployment does not mean anything meaningful in the long run. I'm broke, but that doesn't mean I have to believe the hype about this and that. No one has learned, in the real estate market, of the dangers of the past, except INDEPENDENT Real Estate Appraisers.

    Short sales are being exploited and traded quickly. As an Appraiser Trainee, I woulnd't touch the majority of short sales with a 100 foot pole. Let the NAR and lending institutions screw it up. WHich thy will, because what they are doig are having adverse conditions set up to recycle what has been already cycled It's a tough job, to recycle toxic waste.

    The economy is in trouble! I prefer to be a realist than an optimist or a pessimist.

    Don't believe values, thus numbers, they are artificial; but you can pretend to be happy. Have a happy day pretending...

  • by Greenback | 5/15/2010 12:34:48 PM

    You're welcome.



Is TILA-RESPA a good or bad thing long term?