Last week, MPA asked originators to weigh in on which candidate they thought would be better for the industry – and nearly two thirds said they preferred Donald Trump. Originators said Trump’s friendliness to business would be a boost for the market. For the most part, mortgage company executives seem to agree with that assessment.
“I believe that in the long run, a Trump presidency will be good for the housing and mortgage markets,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president at Ten-X. “He seems committed to bringing regulatory relief – and regulatory certainty – to the financial services industry, which should make more credit available to average homebuyers who have been locked out of the market by today’s extraordinarily tight credit standards.”
Rick Roque, president and founder of Menlo, a consultancy for mortgage companies and builders, also said that Trump’s administration would be a shot in the arm for the mortgage market.
“Trump has a thorough understanding of how Dodd-Frank and the CFPB undermine the growth in real estate and mortgage,” Roque said. “I expect no impact or change on the GSEs, but the non-QM
market will aggressively expand under Trump. We should expect reforms that may breathe new life in the wholesale channels and may possibly strengthen larger lenders under the threat from onerous and vague regulations from the CFPB.”
“The election of Trump will not lead to a weak dollar, but instead a strong dollar before he is sworn in. The safety bid will strengthen U.S. assets, particularly real estate, but it will not benefit commodities,” said Les Parker, senior vice president of LoanLogics. “Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates will remain attractive, but will widen to Treasuries when the next significant drop in the 10-year Treasury yield occurs.”
Brian Koss, executive vice president at Mortgage Network, is a little less optimistic that a Trump administration would be a panacea for all the industry’s ills.
“In the short run the change and shock will result in higher rates and uncertainty for buyers and sellers alike, resulting in short-term drop in volume,” Koss said. “The long term is cloudier, where deregulation and job stimulus will be good but insecure first-time buyer categories like single women and minorities, as well as uncertain international buyers, will drag on the market.”
Wall Street seems to think that a Trump presidency will be good for the mortgage industry. But what are actual