How the housing market in your state determines who will win the mid-term elections

by Rachel.Norvell17 Oct 2014

North Carolina housing market favors Democratic incumbent

 In North Carolina, where 66% of the counties were categorized as better off, the Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is favored and has a slight edge in the polls. Of the 83 counties in North Carolina scored, 66 were categorized as better off, while 12 were categorized as toss-ups and five were categorized as worse off.

In North Carolina’s three largest real estate markets — Mecklenburg, Wake and Guilford — the housing market favors the incumbent. Unemployment is down from two years ago in all three major housing markets: including Mecklenburg County’s unemployment rate is down 2.8 percentage points, Wake County’s unemployment rate is down 2.3 percentage points and Guilford County’s unemployment rate is down 3.0 percentage points.



Meanwhile, the percentage of homeowners underwater is below the national average in all three of these counties thanks in part to rising home prices from two years ago. Homes are less affordable than they were two years ago in all three of the most populated North Carolina counties, but that shift away from affordability is not as dramatic in these counties as the nationwide average.

Two of the three most populated North Carolina counties show a decrease in foreclosure starts from a year ago, with Mecklenburg County foreclosure starts down 50% and Guilford County foreclosure starts down 37%. In contrast, Wake County foreclosure starts are up 18% compared with two years ago.

Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.


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