Home Values Rise but Recovery is Uneven

by 23 Oct 2012

Median national home values rose 1.3 percent from the second to the third quarter - the biggest quarterly gain since March 2006, when home values rose 1.5 percent and the fourth consecutive quarter of increases, Zillow reported today.

The Zillow Home Value Index also rose on an annual basis, increasing 3.2 percent year-over-year to $153,800, and Zillow’s forecast shows U.S. home values will increase 1.7 percent over the next year, and that 183 of the 253 markets covered by the Forecast have hit a bottom. An additional 41 markets are expected to hit a bottom in the next year.

However, two in five of the states covered by the Zillow Real Estate Market Reports showed decreasing values in the third quarter.  The pace of the recovery is uneven as more metro areas showed decreasing quarterly values in the third quarter as the home-buying season came to an end. On a state level, 17 of the 41 states covered by Zillow showed quarterly home values decreases. In the Atlanta metro, for example, home values fell 2.2 percent quarter-over-quarter and 4.8 percent year-over-year.

Overall, more metro areas experienced home value declines in the third quarter than the second  Some , 52 percent declined in the third quarter, compared with one-third (34 percent) in the second quarter. Zillow forecasts a saw-toothed bottom to the housing market, in which home values will log small rises and falls before returning to consistent monthly home value appreciation closer to the long-term historical average.

"We're likely seeing home values fall back into the negative range in some markets due to the close of the traditional home-buying season," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "While that doesn't mean the recovery has come off the rails – in fact, most markets have hit bottom – it does present a confusing environment for consumers. Looking forward, we expect to see home values bump along the bottom for some time, before increasing at a slow and steady pace."

Metropolitan Areas

Zillow Home Value Index

Zillow Home Value Forecast

Q3

2012

Quarter-

Over-

Quarter

Change

Year-

Over-

Year

Change

Projected

Bottom in

Home Values

Change in

ZHVI,

Q3 2012-

Q3 2013

United States

$153,800

1.3%

3.2%

Q4 2011

1.7%

New York

$340,600

-0.2%

-2.3%

--

-2.2%

Los Angeles

$397,000

2.1%

2.7%

Q1 2012

3.5%

Chicago

$162,600

0.1%

-3.2%

Q1 2012

-0.7%

Dallas-Ft. Worth, Texas

$126,500

-0.8%

1.7%

Q4 2011

1.3%

Philadelphia

$185,300

-0.6%

-2.1%

--

-0.6%

Washington DC

$316,300

1.0%

2.7%

Q1 2011

1.1%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

$149,700

2.7%

7.9%

Q4 2011

3.8%

Atlanta

$111,400

-2.2%

-4.8%

--

-1.1%

Boston

$312,100

0.4%

2.0%

Q4 2011

-0.1%

San Francisco

$497,600

3.2%

7.3%

Q1 2012

3.8%

Detroit

$78,700

1.2%

6.4%

Q4 2011

1.4%

Riverside, Calif.

$187,800

2.1%

3.8%

Q1 2012

6.2%

Phoenix

$149,400

5.9%

20.4%

Q3 2011

8.5%

Seattle

$263,500

1.0%

2.6%

Q1 2012

1.8%

Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.

$170,700

0.8%

3.1%

Q1 2012

1.1%

San Diego

$356,100

3.2%

4.3%

Q1 2012

3.4%

Tampa, Fla.

$110,900

1.5%

4.0%

Q4 2011

1.2%

St. Louis

$123,700

-1.1%

-2.1%

Q1 2013

-1.5%

Baltimore

$219,800

0.8%

1.0%

Q1 2012

0.7%

Denver

$221,000

3.8%

8.8%

Q2 2011

1.9%

Pittsburgh

$109,400

0.2%

1.6%

Q1 2009

0.9%

Portland, Ore.

$224,300

2.3%

4.8%

Q3 2011

2.9%

Sacramento, Calif.

$210,900

2.9%

3.4%

Q1 2012

5.6%

Orlando, Fla.

$122,500

0.4%

2.9%

Q1 2012

1.1%

Cincinnati, Oh

$123,100

-0.6%

0.3%

Q1 2012

-0.2%

Cleveland

$108,900

-1.1%

-1.3%

Q1 2013

-0.2%

Las Vegas

$121,500

3.9%

7.0%

Q1 2012

0.1%

San Jose

$599,800

3.5%

9.7%

Q2 2009

4.2%

Columbus

$124,500

-0.3%

0.6%

Q1 2012

0.8%

Charlotte

$135,200

0.8%

1.7%

Q2 2011

-0.3%

 

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