Case-Shiller: Prices Rise for Six Straight Months

by 27 Nov 2012

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 3.6 percent gain in the third quarter of 2012 over the third quarter of 2011, marking the sixth consecutive month of increasing prices. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 2.1percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.

Average home prices in the 10- and 20-City Composites were each up by 0.3 percent in September versus August 2012. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in September versus August 2012; Detroit and Washington D.C. recorded a slight deceleration in their annual rates, and New York saw no change.

The 10- and 20-City Composites have posted positive annual returns for four consecutive months with a +2.1 percent and +3.0 percent annual change in September, respectively. Month-over-month, both Composites have recorded increases for six consecutive months, with the most recent monthly gain being +0.3 percent for each Composite.

“In September's report all three headline composites and 17 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 13 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains. says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year.  The headline figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed five cities with lower prices in September versus only one in August; in the seasonally adjusted data the pattern was reversed: one city fell in September versus two in August. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.

Blitzer said Phoenix continues to lead the recovery with a +20.4 percent annual growth rate. Atlanta has finally reversed 26 months of annual declines with a +0.1 percent annual rate as observed in September's housing data. At the other end of the spectrum, Chicago and New York were the only two cities to post annual declines of 1.5 percent and 2.3 percent respectively and were also down 0.6 percent and 0.1 percent month-over-month.

"Thirteen of the 20 cities recorded positive monthly returns; Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York saw modest drops in home prices in September as compared to August; Tampa and Washington D.C. were flat. With six months of consistently rising home prices, it is safe to say that we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market."

As of the third quarter of 2012, average home prices across the United States are back at their mid-2003 levels.  At the end of the third quarter of 2012, the National Index was up 2.2 percent over the second quarter of 2012 and 3.6% above the third quarter of 2011.

As of September 2012, average home prices across the United States for the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their autumn 2003 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the decline for both Composites is approximately 29 percent through September 2012. For both Composites, the September 2012 levels are approximately 9 percent above their recent lows seen in March 2012.

In September 2012, 13 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly gains. Home prices in Tampa and Washington DC saw no change from August to September. Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York saw a slight drop in prices in September. Phoenix recorded the highest increase in annual rate, up 20.4% from its September 2011 level. Chicago and New York were the only two cities that fared worse year-over-year with respective annual rates of -1.5% and -2.3 percent.

Atlanta, Detroit and Las Vegas remain the only three cities with average home prices below their January 2000 levels.  Detroit with a 79.82 print, is nearly 20 percent below its January 2000 level.

The table below summarizes the results for September 2012.

 

2012   Q3

2012   Q3/2012 Q2

2012 Q2/2012 Q1

 
 

Level

Change   (%)

Change   (%)

1-Year Change (%)

U.S. National Index

135.67

2.2%

7.1%

3.6%

 

September 2012

September/August

August/July 

 

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change   (%)

Change   (%)

1-Year Change (%)

Atlanta

96.06

0.3%

1.8%

0.1%

Boston

157.26

-0.6%

0.7%

1.9%

Charlotte

116.28

-0.3%

0.6%

3.5%

Chicago

116.69

-0.6%

0.7%

-1.5%

Cleveland

102.10

-0.9%

1.0%

1.4%

Dallas

121.57

0.2%

0.1%

4.4%

Denver

134.01

0.4%

0.5%

6.7%

Detroit

79.82

0.7%

2.1%

7.6%

Las Vegas

97.38

1.4%

1.6%

3.8%

Los Angeles

174.80

1.0%

1.3%

4.0%

Miami

150.24

0.1%

1.0%

7.4%

Minneapolis

126.02

1.1%

1.2%

8.8%

New York

166.10

-0.1%

0.6%

-2.3%

Phoenix

120.65

1.1%

1.8%

20.4%

Portland

141.10

0.2%

0.5%

3.7%

San Diego

160.09

1.4%

0.9%

4.1%

San Francisco

143.15

0.5%

0.5%

7.5%

Seattle

142.09

0.3%

-0.1%

4.8%

Tampa

134.90

0.0%

0.4%

5.9%

Washington

192.36

0.0%

0.5%

3.2%

Composite-10

158.93

0.3%

0.8%

2.1%

Composite-20

146.22

0.3%

0.8%

3.0%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices   and Fiserv

   

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

 

2012   Q3/2012 Q2

2012   Q2/2012 Q1

 

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

US National

2.2%

1.1%

7.1%

2.4%

 

September/August   Change (%)

August/July   Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.3%

1.7%

1.8%

1.7%

Boston

-0.6%

0.1%

0.7%

0.5%

Charlotte

-0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

0.4%

Chicago

-0.6%

-0.7%

0.7%

-0.1%

Cleveland

-0.9%

0.6%

1.0%

0.3%

Dallas

0.2%

1.0%

0.1%

0.2%

Denver

0.4%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

Detroit

0.7%

0.4%

2.1%

0.5%

Las Vegas

1.4%

1.1%

1.6%

0.8%

Los Angeles

1.0%

0.8%

1.3%

1.0%

Miami

0.1%

0.3%

1.0%

0.4%

Minneapolis

1.1%

1.0%

1.2%

0.4%

New York

-0.1%

0.3%

0.6%

0.0%

Phoenix

1.1%

1.3%

1.8%

1.4%

Portland

0.2%

0.7%

0.5%

0.4%

San Diego

1.4%

1.7%

0.9%

0.7%

San Francisco

0.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.1%

Seattle

0.3%

0.5%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Tampa

0.0%

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

Washington

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

0.0%

Composite-10

0.3%

0.3%

0.8%

0.3%

Composite-20

0.3%

0.4%

0.8%

0.4%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices   and Fiserv

   

Data through September 2012

     

 

COMMENTS

  • by Corey Curwick | 11/28/2012 7:41:24 PM

    Shiller also commented in a WSJ post back in August that he would like to see prices continue to rise through the Spring of 2013 before he really thinks the coast is clear. http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2012/08/06/is-this-the-end-of-the-housing-bust-not-so-fast-says-shiller/

  • by Steve Cook | 11/28/2012 8:17:12 PM

    Corey,

    Good point. It should be noted that Standard & Poor's, rather than Shiller, operates the index today. The comment I cited was not from Shiller but an S&P executive, David Blitzer.

  • by Puyallup Tacoma home prices rising | 11/30/2012 1:33:58 PM

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